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Really interesting! The ideas around how market changes and consumer knowledge can change the shopping dynamic are very insightful.

From a different perspective - how about the idea that businesses moved things black Friday sales earlier as they assume this will increase sales (if they will buy tomorrow, why not have it today). This notion was referenced in the recent timing of pumpkin spice lattes being released earlier (or multiple amazon prime days). This would be then a short term profit increase at the expense of long term profits if people respond by assuming that they no longer need to purchase urgently, and thus reduce purchases during Black Friday season.

Of course, the above idea would imply that firms are either a. Irrational (don't maximize profits) or b. Have very high discount factors (profit this year trumps all future profits). The former is naturally an unsatisfying answers. The latter could be an issue with exec pay being tied to current success.

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