Every World Cup comes with billion-dollar promises. Every time, the economists shrug. Before FIFA and politicians take their victory lap in July, here's what the research has been saying for decades and what they won't mention when they do.
Thank you for such a nice summary. It's likely I'll use this in my sports econ class in the fall. I love teaching about crowding out and the substitution effect surrounding mega-events!
- When I was an Air Force aircraft maintenance officer, my data analyst gave me a sign for my desk with the Homer Simpson quote, "Facts are meaningless, they can be used to prove anything." This is probably how FIFA justifies its press release, much to the chagrin of the Italian restaurant around the corner from the sports bar...
- If the government can set up a fund to repay those who are victims of a weaponized justice system, I wonder if they could set up a fund to reimburse investors (lodging, transportation) who thought more overseas fans would show up and then we started trade/immigrations wars with the rest of the world.
- "Psychic Income" - I was hoping this was a boost in GDP due to fans visiting psychics trying to decide who to bet on!
This is a particularly good moment for a strike...
"Roughly 2,000 SoFi Stadium workers overwhelmingly authorized a strike a week before the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off in Los Angeles.
"Unite Here Local 11, which represents the stadium's hospitality staff, said 96% of its members voted in favor of striking. While their demands include higher wages and job security, the main reason for the potential walkout stems from the presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement at the international soccer tournament. "
YES! Thanks for this. And, yes, my hometown Chicago looks like the smart ones- finally. I think we learned a lesson when a previous Mayor with a very (in)famous dad (ahem) leased all the city parking meters for 99 years to a private firm for some upfront cash in order to produce the winning bid for the 2014 Olympics. That went over well. This also may be why we're letting Indiana help foot the bill for a new stadium for our NFL franchise. We know how cash strapped that league is! ;) So, Hammond, IN will be the recipients of a shift in Chicago spending for 8, 9 or maybe even10 Sundays a year. Curious what that trade-off looks like for Hoosier-land. Psychic benefits aside (and, they are hard to quantify), I appreciate your spelling it out like this. The role of FIFA and the IOC as monolith monopsony and monopoly are certainly worthy of some SEISMIC commentary.
We actually have a paper out on the effect of organizing mega events and increased wealth inequality, check it out: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268024001174
I'm surprised I never got a chance to read this when it came out. Thank you for sharing!
Thank you for such a nice summary. It's likely I'll use this in my sports econ class in the fall. I love teaching about crowding out and the substitution effect surrounding mega-events!
Thanks, Sarah! I have a couple of other articles in a similar vein that may fit better with what you're doing:
Paris Olympics: https://www.mondayeconomist.com/p/the-paris-olympics-wont-add-billions.
Caitlin Clark & Iowa: https://www.mondayeconomist.com/p/caitlin-clark
I was trying not to duplicate myself on this one, so I left a lot of those explicit terms out of it.
Great post, and timely as always!
A few thoughts:
- When I was an Air Force aircraft maintenance officer, my data analyst gave me a sign for my desk with the Homer Simpson quote, "Facts are meaningless, they can be used to prove anything." This is probably how FIFA justifies its press release, much to the chagrin of the Italian restaurant around the corner from the sports bar...
- If the government can set up a fund to repay those who are victims of a weaponized justice system, I wonder if they could set up a fund to reimburse investors (lodging, transportation) who thought more overseas fans would show up and then we started trade/immigrations wars with the rest of the world.
- "Psychic Income" - I was hoping this was a boost in GDP due to fans visiting psychics trying to decide who to bet on!
This is a particularly good moment for a strike...
"Roughly 2,000 SoFi Stadium workers overwhelmingly authorized a strike a week before the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicks off in Los Angeles.
"Unite Here Local 11, which represents the stadium's hospitality staff, said 96% of its members voted in favor of striking. While their demands include higher wages and job security, the main reason for the potential walkout stems from the presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement at the international soccer tournament. "
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/sofi-stadium-workers-strik-2026-fifa-world-cup-los-angeles/
YES! Thanks for this. And, yes, my hometown Chicago looks like the smart ones- finally. I think we learned a lesson when a previous Mayor with a very (in)famous dad (ahem) leased all the city parking meters for 99 years to a private firm for some upfront cash in order to produce the winning bid for the 2014 Olympics. That went over well. This also may be why we're letting Indiana help foot the bill for a new stadium for our NFL franchise. We know how cash strapped that league is! ;) So, Hammond, IN will be the recipients of a shift in Chicago spending for 8, 9 or maybe even10 Sundays a year. Curious what that trade-off looks like for Hoosier-land. Psychic benefits aside (and, they are hard to quantify), I appreciate your spelling it out like this. The role of FIFA and the IOC as monolith monopsony and monopoly are certainly worthy of some SEISMIC commentary.