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Phillip Tussing's avatar

So... question. Beth Hammack, President of the Fed in Cleveland, states: "On average, what we have seen over the past 12 months is 41,000 new jobs being created each month. That's largely in line with my estimate of what the break-even is, which was borne out by the fact that the unemployment rate, which I think is the single best measure of the health of the labor market, has continued to be stable at a low number."

In its revised 2025 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy-2025.htm), the FOMC published the latest version of the "dual mandate as:

"The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is firmly committed to fulfilling its statutory mandate from Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates."

Note that the Congressional Mandate refers to "maximum employment", not to "a low and stable unemployment rate".

In my lecture on Employment & Unemployment, I say that "many economists consider U-6 and the Labor Force Participation Rate to be better measures of how the economy affects the working-age population than the official unemployment rate (U-3)."

It may be that Hammack says this because she supposes that the Fed has more influence over U-3 than it does over U-6 or the LFPR. That doesn't change my assessment; it merely brings up that the Fed needs the cooperation of the legislative branch to bring about optimal employment/unemployment.

What do you-all think?

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