Millions of fans watch, hoping their favorite team will pick a future star. Yet, beneath the surface lies a complex decision-making process involving insights from behavioral economics.
Behold! The idea of trading down for later picks is interesting, but only if the odds of re-signing remain the same in the depths of the draft. If the odds remain at 44% in future rounds, then getting 2.27 later-round picks (even over multiple years) for a first round pick makes sense. But if the odds of re-signing drop (which they likely do) it requires more, perhaps 3 or 4 or perhaps even 5 additional picks to compensate
Behold! The idea of trading down for later picks is interesting, but only if the odds of re-signing remain the same in the depths of the draft. If the odds remain at 44% in future rounds, then getting 2.27 later-round picks (even over multiple years) for a first round pick makes sense. But if the odds of re-signing drop (which they likely do) it requires more, perhaps 3 or 4 or perhaps even 5 additional picks to compensate