That "41% of men under 30..." stat made me laugh out loud! Also, I love your description of a cognitive bias like overconfidence as a "factory setting in the human mind." Thanks, Jadrian! This one led to a lot of discussion at Econiful :)
The difference between confidence and overconfidence can be lethal and lead to massive market failures and real world calamities. It’s a big reason why we are so bad at prediction.
I also like to present this data against what “experts” say ie. What share of professional soccer players say they can make a free kick
Sure. In psychology, you are precisely describing the Dunning-Krueger Effect (DKE). As in this article, there is usually no hesitation in saying that the effect is "universal". Since the original 1999 paper, there has been a lot of further investigation. DKE is not an overconfidence problem -- to a great extent it is a metacognition problem -- the person who does not have a skill is not surprisingly bad at assessing how difficult the skill is and whether they are capable of doing it. The most effective way of mitigating the mis-assessment of skill level is to teach the person the skill. There is also a cultural aspect: people in Far Eastern cultures (Japan, China) exhibit DKE at a lower level. Here is what I think (disclaimer: I am an Economist, not a Psychologist, so my assessment skill may be poor) is a pretty good overview:
I actually went back and forth on including Dunning-Kruger! I ended up leaving it out since I was trying to focus on overconfidence bias specifically, and Dunning-Kruger is more about the relationship between someone's actual skill level and how they rate themselves. Since the survey didn't ask about people's actual soccer experience, it felt like a slightly different phenomenon to wedge in.
I was feeling a little DKE for explanation as well. Certainly, heuristics play a role. Wondering how many young men going down the gambling rabbit hole started with, "I won my fantasy football league. I predicted the Super Bowl winner. That's evidence that I would be good at picking against the spread, too." Some of these thinking shortcuts that worked previously in fits and starts begin to feel reliable, so why question it? It could be incompetence, but it could also because making quick, successful judgment calls that work in small, costless or low-cost situations might lead one to gain some unearned self-confidence.
But, taking on a gorilla...huh? I wonder about the difference between a survey answer about the idea of wrestling a gorilla and an answer given right next to the wrestling ring with the gorilla inside. Bravado, incompetence and heuristics take a back seat at that point, no? And, I say the same thing would happen at the penalty spot. Penalty kicks certainly feel straightforward. All that space and I'm 11 m away? No problem, says the armchair footy fan. Never mind the goalie with the albatross wingspan. Having felt weak knees taking pens in front of a crowd of...30? 40? I can't imagine 80,000. Plus, all the people back home plus national pride, plus exhaustion. I mean... I feel like there's a penalty kick function here that needs deriving.
I've enjoyed the WC articles and the connections to similar human behavior elsewhere. It's a nice reminder that when humans face choices with real consequences, practice, genuine feedback and mistakes can lead to something closer to optimal outcomes. Unless your gambling algo keeps pulling you back in...
Great post. I am amazed that anyone thinks they can beat a gorilla or chimp unarmed. Even armed and alone it may be a challenge. I also surprised at how many people who have never trained think that they can fight. Or people who own a guy but don't practice think they are sharp shooters. You might be interested in this psy. paper. It provides what people think are valuable traits in others. Buss, D. M., Durkee, P. K., Shackelford, T. K., Bowdle, B. F., Schmitt, D. P., Brase, G. L., Choe, J. C., & Trofimova, I. (2020). Human status criteria: Sex differences and similarities across 14 nations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 119(5), 979–998. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000206
Every time YouGov comes out with one of the "could you do this" surveys, I get a good laugh out of it. I want to know where I can find this confidence!
That "41% of men under 30..." stat made me laugh out loud! Also, I love your description of a cognitive bias like overconfidence as a "factory setting in the human mind." Thanks, Jadrian! This one led to a lot of discussion at Econiful :)
Wait...is there something about men under 30 being overconfident? ;) Yes, some of us have a "factory setting" set for "Always Awesome".
Anytime a young man comes to class with a cast on, I ask what stupid thing he tried to do the night before. It's never as cool the next day.
The original article breaks it down by voting behavior, which will give you another laugh. I'm sure you can guess the results.
The difference between confidence and overconfidence can be lethal and lead to massive market failures and real world calamities. It’s a big reason why we are so bad at prediction.
I also like to present this data against what “experts” say ie. What share of professional soccer players say they can make a free kick
Sure. In psychology, you are precisely describing the Dunning-Krueger Effect (DKE). As in this article, there is usually no hesitation in saying that the effect is "universal". Since the original 1999 paper, there has been a lot of further investigation. DKE is not an overconfidence problem -- to a great extent it is a metacognition problem -- the person who does not have a skill is not surprisingly bad at assessing how difficult the skill is and whether they are capable of doing it. The most effective way of mitigating the mis-assessment of skill level is to teach the person the skill. There is also a cultural aspect: people in Far Eastern cultures (Japan, China) exhibit DKE at a lower level. Here is what I think (disclaimer: I am an Economist, not a Psychologist, so my assessment skill may be poor) is a pretty good overview:
https://yukaichou.com/behavioral-analysis/dunning-kruger-effect-incompetence-overconfidence/
I actually went back and forth on including Dunning-Kruger! I ended up leaving it out since I was trying to focus on overconfidence bias specifically, and Dunning-Kruger is more about the relationship between someone's actual skill level and how they rate themselves. Since the survey didn't ask about people's actual soccer experience, it felt like a slightly different phenomenon to wedge in.
I was feeling a little DKE for explanation as well. Certainly, heuristics play a role. Wondering how many young men going down the gambling rabbit hole started with, "I won my fantasy football league. I predicted the Super Bowl winner. That's evidence that I would be good at picking against the spread, too." Some of these thinking shortcuts that worked previously in fits and starts begin to feel reliable, so why question it? It could be incompetence, but it could also because making quick, successful judgment calls that work in small, costless or low-cost situations might lead one to gain some unearned self-confidence.
But, taking on a gorilla...huh? I wonder about the difference between a survey answer about the idea of wrestling a gorilla and an answer given right next to the wrestling ring with the gorilla inside. Bravado, incompetence and heuristics take a back seat at that point, no? And, I say the same thing would happen at the penalty spot. Penalty kicks certainly feel straightforward. All that space and I'm 11 m away? No problem, says the armchair footy fan. Never mind the goalie with the albatross wingspan. Having felt weak knees taking pens in front of a crowd of...30? 40? I can't imagine 80,000. Plus, all the people back home plus national pride, plus exhaustion. I mean... I feel like there's a penalty kick function here that needs deriving.
I've enjoyed the WC articles and the connections to similar human behavior elsewhere. It's a nice reminder that when humans face choices with real consequences, practice, genuine feedback and mistakes can lead to something closer to optimal outcomes. Unless your gambling algo keeps pulling you back in...
I'm so thankful that I didn't have gambling apps when I was a college student because I'm pretty sure I would have been hooked. I love a good parlay.
Great post. I am amazed that anyone thinks they can beat a gorilla or chimp unarmed. Even armed and alone it may be a challenge. I also surprised at how many people who have never trained think that they can fight. Or people who own a guy but don't practice think they are sharp shooters. You might be interested in this psy. paper. It provides what people think are valuable traits in others. Buss, D. M., Durkee, P. K., Shackelford, T. K., Bowdle, B. F., Schmitt, D. P., Brase, G. L., Choe, J. C., & Trofimova, I. (2020). Human status criteria: Sex differences and similarities across 14 nations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 119(5), 979–998. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000206
Every time YouGov comes out with one of the "could you do this" surveys, I get a good laugh out of it. I want to know where I can find this confidence!