That "41% of men under 30..." stat made me laugh out loud! Also, I love your description of a cognitive bias like overconfidence as a "factory setting in the human mind." Thanks, Jadrian! This one led to a lot of discussion at Econiful :)
Sure. In psychology, you are precisely describing the Dunning-Krueger Effect (DKE). As in this article, there is usually no hesitation in saying that the effect is "universal". Since the original 1999 paper, there has been a lot of further investigation. DKE is not an overconfidence problem -- to a great extent it is a metacognition problem -- the person who does not have a skill is not surprisingly bad at assessing how difficult the skill is and whether they are capable of doing it. The most effective way of mitigating the mis-assessment of skill level is to teach the person the skill. There is also a cultural aspect: people in Far Eastern cultures (Japan, China) exhibit DKE at a lower level. Here is what I think (disclaimer: I am an Economist, not a Psychologist, so my assessment skill may be poor) is a pretty good overview:
I actually went back and forth on including Dunning-Kruger! I ended up leaving it out since I was trying to focus on overconfidence bias specifically, and Dunning-Kruger is more about the relationship between someone's actual skill level and how they rate themselves. Since the survey didn't ask about people's actual soccer experience, it felt like a slightly different phenomenon to wedge in.
Great post. I am amazed that anyone thinks they can beat a gorilla or chimp unarmed. Even armed and alone it may be a challenge. I also surprised at how many people who have never trained think that they can fight. Or people who own a guy but don't practice think they are sharp shooters. You might be interested in this psy. paper. It provides what people think are valuable traits in others. Buss, D. M., Durkee, P. K., Shackelford, T. K., Bowdle, B. F., Schmitt, D. P., Brase, G. L., Choe, J. C., & Trofimova, I. (2020). Human status criteria: Sex differences and similarities across 14 nations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 119(5), 979–998. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000206
Every time YouGov comes out with one of the "could you do this" surveys, I get a good laugh out of it. I want to know where I can find this confidence!
That "41% of men under 30..." stat made me laugh out loud! Also, I love your description of a cognitive bias like overconfidence as a "factory setting in the human mind." Thanks, Jadrian! This one led to a lot of discussion at Econiful :)
The original article breaks it down by voting behavior, which will give you another laugh. I'm sure you can guess the results.
Sure. In psychology, you are precisely describing the Dunning-Krueger Effect (DKE). As in this article, there is usually no hesitation in saying that the effect is "universal". Since the original 1999 paper, there has been a lot of further investigation. DKE is not an overconfidence problem -- to a great extent it is a metacognition problem -- the person who does not have a skill is not surprisingly bad at assessing how difficult the skill is and whether they are capable of doing it. The most effective way of mitigating the mis-assessment of skill level is to teach the person the skill. There is also a cultural aspect: people in Far Eastern cultures (Japan, China) exhibit DKE at a lower level. Here is what I think (disclaimer: I am an Economist, not a Psychologist, so my assessment skill may be poor) is a pretty good overview:
https://yukaichou.com/behavioral-analysis/dunning-kruger-effect-incompetence-overconfidence/
I actually went back and forth on including Dunning-Kruger! I ended up leaving it out since I was trying to focus on overconfidence bias specifically, and Dunning-Kruger is more about the relationship between someone's actual skill level and how they rate themselves. Since the survey didn't ask about people's actual soccer experience, it felt like a slightly different phenomenon to wedge in.
Great post. I am amazed that anyone thinks they can beat a gorilla or chimp unarmed. Even armed and alone it may be a challenge. I also surprised at how many people who have never trained think that they can fight. Or people who own a guy but don't practice think they are sharp shooters. You might be interested in this psy. paper. It provides what people think are valuable traits in others. Buss, D. M., Durkee, P. K., Shackelford, T. K., Bowdle, B. F., Schmitt, D. P., Brase, G. L., Choe, J. C., & Trofimova, I. (2020). Human status criteria: Sex differences and similarities across 14 nations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 119(5), 979–998. https://doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000206
Every time YouGov comes out with one of the "could you do this" surveys, I get a good laugh out of it. I want to know where I can find this confidence!