Competitive Eaters Experience Diminishing Returns, Too!

Even without Joey Chestnut in this year's Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, diminishing returns will "ketchup" to all the eaters at some point in the contest.

Jul 01, 2024

Thank you for reading Monday Morning Economist! This is a free weekly newsletter that explores the economics behind pop culture and current events. This newsletter lands in the inbox of more than 4,600 subscribers every week! You can support this newsletter by sharing this free post or becoming a paid supporter:

Joey Chestnut defended his championship title in 2023 by eating 62 hot dogs in the men’s division of Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest. [Source: **Yana Paskova | The New York Times**]

The Fourth of July is just a few days away, which means the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is just a few days away! For the uninitiated, this annual event showcases competitive eaters devouring as many hot dogs as possible in just ten minutes. It’s a display of sheer stomach-stretching prowess that captivates audiences every year.

There is a twist this year. Joey Chestnut, the reigning champion and legend of competitive eating, will not be on the stage in Coney Island. His recent endorsement with Impossible Foods means he won’t participate, leaving the competition open for a change. But while fans may miss Chestnut’s performance, his absence won’t change a fundamental economic concept affecting all the remaining competitive eaters on stage: diminishing marginal returns.

We can observe diminishing returns in a variety of contexts, from manufacturing to farming, and yes, even competitive eating. Whether you’re chowing down at your backyard BBQ or watching the greatest competitive eaters of the year, diminishing returns come for us all. Simply put, diminishing returns occur when the incremental gains decrease after adding more of a particular input—such as time, effort, or resources. In the case of competitive eating, we can see this concept unfold as eaters try to consume as many hot dogs as they can within a fixed time constraint.

Explaining Diminishing Returns

Let’s break down this concept a bit more. Imagine you’re at your favorite buffet, and you’re determined to get your money’s worth. You start strong, loading your plate with all your favorite dishes. The first plate is heavenly. You go back for seconds, and it’s still great. By the time you hit your third plate, things start to slow down. Your stomach is getting full, and each additional bite doesn’t make you quite as happy as those first bites. That’s diminishing returns in action.

In economics, diminishing returns happen when we keep adding more of one input while holding others constant, and the additional output we get starts to decline. Think about an assembly line in a factory: if you keep adding workers to a production line without increasing the number of machines, eventually, those workers will start getting in each other’s way. The same principle applies to our competitive eaters as we give them more time to eat.

Diminishing Returns During Nathan’s Contest

Now, back to the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest. Competitors have ten minutes to eat as many hot dogs as possible. At the start, they’re fresh, their stomachs are empty, and their pace is fast. But as time winds down, they start to slow down. Even the absolute best competitors can’t overcome diminishing returns.

Let’s look at Joey Chestnut’s performance in the 2023 contest in two-minute increments to make it easier. In the first two minutes, Chestnut devoured an astonishing 19 hot dogs. But he managed to consume only 15 more in the next two minutes. That’s still impressive, but a clear decline. In the third segment, he ate 11 more hot dogs, followed by 9 in the fourth, and finally, 8 in the last two minutes. Despite his best efforts, Chestnut’s total consumption increased at a decreasing rate.

Diminishing Return in Other Places

Competitive eating turns out to be a good example of diminishing returns because the product—hot dogs and buns in this case—is easily countable. This makes it straightforward to quantify and analyze the effects of diminishing returns. But this principle extends far beyond the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Let’s say you try to impersonate Joey Chestnut at your own Fourth of July barbecue. At first, you might quickly consume several hot dogs, but as you continue, each additional hot dog becomes more challenging to eat. Eventually, you reach a point where the thought of consuming another hot dog is nearly unbearable. The total number of hot dogs you’ve eaten has increased, but the rate at which you can continue to eat them has significantly decreased. You are just like Joey Chestnut, sort of!

But if you’re not up for a gastronomical challenge this year, consider the experience of watching a choreographed fireworks display. The first minute or two of the show is filled with excitement and awe as the sky lights up with bursts of color. As the show continues, your overall enjoyment increases, but perhaps not as intensely as during those initial moments. If the show goes on for too long, you might even start to wonder when it will end. The thrill of the last few minutes just doesn’t compare to the exhilaration of the beginning. That’s diminishing returns, too.

Final Thoughts

These returns aren’t just theoretical; they are observable and relatable. The concept is all around us, influencing many aspects of our daily lives. Understanding this concept helps us make sense of why our enjoyment or productivity tends to taper off after a certain point. It’s a reminder that more isn’t always better, and sometimes, the best experiences and outcomes come in the early stages.

Every year, the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest provides an entertaining way to visualize this economic principle. If you tune in this year, pay attention to how the initial burst of consumption slows down as the contest progresses. Even the most skilled competitive eaters face the same limitations you and I would experience. Their threshold doesn’t kick in until way later. As you enjoy your hot dogs this holiday, remember that each bite is a lesson in economics.