A. cause-and-effect of obvious bad policy is not dead.
a.1 its called the dismal science because nothing happens in a vacuum.
it seems people are most befuddled with the notion that bad policy has not already affected the stock market, but record IT capex (displacing consumer spending for the the first time) has masked a lot of companies with worsening earnings.
The last chart shows a decline in the relevant index going back at least as far as 2021. A reasonable lag is to be expected, but can the index be of much value if the expected result still hasn't happened after four years?
To add, companies use saran wrap instead of boxes, while others maximize the space in the box. I received a request from Amazon on my recent order asking if I wanted my items boxed. Recycling boxes is another alternative. It is amazing to see how something as simple as a box can be an indicator of the health of a business.
The unemployment is what bothers me. I recently saw a few articles talking about the downturn in bluecollar jobs. I am always quick to remind my students a economy is interconnected we all win or lose. There are no recession proof industries just resistance to certain variants.
Its hard to see this changing without a change in the tariff policies. My fingers are crossed that maybe with some resemblance of stability businesses will feel confortable to invest and consumers will feel ok to spend
Didn't the Soviets use the same indicator - then ensured substantial resources were devoted to shipping cardboard around the country so they could proclaim the economy was very active?
A. cause-and-effect of obvious bad policy is not dead.
a.1 its called the dismal science because nothing happens in a vacuum.
it seems people are most befuddled with the notion that bad policy has not already affected the stock market, but record IT capex (displacing consumer spending for the the first time) has masked a lot of companies with worsening earnings.
To be fair, the discipline, it's called the dismal science because economic theory couldn't support slavery: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/12/why-economics-is-really-called-the-dismal-science/282454/
To your main point, the past few years have been a mess (politically and economically), and I'm not entirely sure anyone knows what's going on.
Your first figure… chef’s kiss. 👨🍳
The last chart shows a decline in the relevant index going back at least as far as 2021. A reasonable lag is to be expected, but can the index be of much value if the expected result still hasn't happened after four years?
Here's the data going back to 1972: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPN32221S
To add, companies use saran wrap instead of boxes, while others maximize the space in the box. I received a request from Amazon on my recent order asking if I wanted my items boxed. Recycling boxes is another alternative. It is amazing to see how something as simple as a box can be an indicator of the health of a business.
The unemployment is what bothers me. I recently saw a few articles talking about the downturn in bluecollar jobs. I am always quick to remind my students a economy is interconnected we all win or lose. There are no recession proof industries just resistance to certain variants.
Its hard to see this changing without a change in the tariff policies. My fingers are crossed that maybe with some resemblance of stability businesses will feel confortable to invest and consumers will feel ok to spend
You and me both, friend!
Didn't the Soviets use the same indicator - then ensured substantial resources were devoted to shipping cardboard around the country so they could proclaim the economy was very active?