You could be right but if so, you need to point to the Fed policies that will cause it.
Also how do you reconcile prediction of recession with TIPS close to the Fed's target rate if inflation. Recessions in 2008-9 and 2029-21 crushed inflation.
I'm not saying it is impossible, but how does your model work?
as for everything, Preparedness > Prediction!
You could be right but if so, you need to point to the Fed policies that will cause it.
Also how do you reconcile prediction of recession with TIPS close to the Fed's target rate if inflation. Recessions in 2008-9 and 2029-21 crushed inflation.
I'm not saying it is impossible, but how does your model work?
See:
https://thomaslhutcheson.substack.com/p/framework-for-monetary-policy-1
https://thomaslhutcheson.substack.com/p/framework-for-monetary-policy-2